salmon numbers and forecast for georgia straight and fraser river 2023 – 2024
The below article was published by ‘Island Fisherman‘ magazine, March 2024 and really covers the data on salmon numbers for 2023 and the forecast for 2024 for the areas of Georgia Straight(ocean) and the lower Fraser River and it’s well known tributaries.
What’s all this nonsense on the news about whales not having enough to eat?
Anyone who fishes BC waters will tell you that last season was a 30-year high point. And this winter’s fishery has been just incredible. Data from the 2023 Department of Fisheries and Oceans (DFO) reports and 2024 forecasts, highlighted in a recent SFI newsletter, tell the tale:
- 2023 returns of Summer 4.1 Chinook, which enter the Fraser July to September and spawn in the Thompson/Shuswap area, were estimated by DFO to be an unprecedented 627,000 fish. For the past decade, the average returns have been 75,000 to 100,000.
- The Harrison River stock, closely monitored to provide a proxy for all the other rivers that make up the larger Fall 4.1 stock group, saw returns at 150,000—more than double the escapement goal.
- Cowichan Chinook, another carefully monitored indicator stock, are estimated at 21,000, well over its escapement goal of 6,500 for over 7 years.
- From 2023, enhanced Chinook returns to Barkley Sound are estimated at 200,000, and all West and East Coast Vancouver Island enhanced run returns are at high levels of abundance.As for 2024, the DFO anticipates similar returns. I’m not one that enjoys political conversations, but seeing Chinook abundance in BC waters it’s hard not to engage when you see a news piece on TV with a narrative that the whales are starving, and claiming that a baby whale died because of “lack of food.” Speaking of whales, the last time I checked, whales were transient animals that follow equally transient food. Why would DFO think that no-fishing and no-go whale sanctuaries for recreational anglers are effective to aid whales? We suggest looking to the avoidance model that even the US embraces—see page 20 in the issue. Let’s think critically.Michael Crichton said it best:“The greatest challenge facing mankind is the challenge of distinguishing reality from fantasy, truth from propaganda. We must daily decide whether the threats we face are real, whether the solutions we are offered will do any good, whether the problems we’re told exist are in fact real problems, or non-problems.”
Be sure to see the proof in the March-April issue. We’ll continue to show the science, and capture the essence of our fishery in each and every issue. It’s not just fishing, it’s our culture and tradition—it’s who we are. Just take one look at how Sean Heart on the cover of this issue is admiring and respecting that hatchery Chinook. That right there, is a true Island Fisherman.
Island Fisherman cover March 2024
